In 2023, talking to all my friends in middle school who either weren’t from Connecticut or lacked state pride, I felt like the Grinch. March Madness was the wild west in 2023 with the highest seed of the Final Four being four-seed UConn. To put that into perspective, this year’s Final Four had only top three-seeded teams, with two number one seeds amongst them. For those who didn’t follow UConn’s 2023 regular season, it looked like this: November, great; December, great; January, lost 5 of 8 games; February, great; March, won the Natty.
All these factors led to the Huskies being a four-seed, and when they reached the Final Four, I was filled with hope I’d see them win their first national championship in my (conscious) lifetime. Granted, it was actually only nine years removed from their last one, but I was five back then, and Jim Calhoun, the legendary Huskies coach from 1986-2012, was just a name that rang empty to me. University of Miami, the five-seed, was the next worst, but don’t worry, UConn took care of them.
The other side of the bracket, however, presented options of SDSU (San Diego State University) and Florida Atlantic—not perennial powerhouses. UConn won. Frankly, it was never in doubt. What it was, however, was the most diverse Final Four I’ve ever seen, and, with the increasing prevalence of money in college sports, a subject I have already opined upon, I may never see it again.
Let’s take a look at this year’s March Madness Final Four, which, not to brag, I predicted perfectly (97th percentile bracket, but who’s counting?). You had, on the right side, two one-seeds. Michigan, the eventual winner (with a lineup of all transfers, by the way), faced off against one-seed Arizona, who I, in spite of my state pride, backed to win. I was correct that UConn would lose in the finals, albeit tragically, but incorrect as to who they would lose to.
On the left side, was two-seed UConn, who wound up losing in the finals. Filling out the final four, if you were feeling frisky, was three- seed Illinois. Upset lovers were hardly satisfied. To be the bearer of bad news, they rarely are in any meaningful way. I loved Sister Jean as much as anyone, and I truly appreciated the runs of 2022 St. Peters, 2025 McNeese, 2018 Loyola Chicago, or whatever other upset darlings ESPN tried to convince you had what it took to win it all.
There is an unfortunate predictive model with a high degree of accuracy. It’s known as OSOC. OS stands for one seed, and they have made up for 14 of the 17 national championships OSOC has correctly predicted in the past 18 years. C stands for Connecticut. UConn has the other three. The only non- one-seed who’s not named UConn to win in my lifespan was, drum roll, two-seed Villanova. That shot wasn’t just the greatest buzzer- beater of all time, but a message of hope to all the underdogs. Even teams that aren’t in the top four can win, provided they’re in Storrs or, get this, in the top five. If you’re not a top seed, winning a college basketball title is just incredibly unlikely.
In the CFP (College Football Playoffs), by contrast, since 2014, one-seeds have won only four times out of 13. Basketball just seems to be predictable. In fact, when I tuned in to ESPN the day after the brackets, their analysts—typically exceedingly able in the field of being wrong—correctly observed that this year seemed to be one where the top seeds would win.
What am I getting at in this, admittedly rambly, piece of writing? I think this trend of number one seeds facing off in the National Championship is going to continue. The transfer portal only compounds this issue. Those that win get money. Those that get money spend it. Those that spend, win. NIL has made the college sports landscape one where the rich get richer, but I digress. If you want to know why I think the transfer portal is bad, read my article on Nico Iamaleava.
While I, like you, will be rooting for whatever 11-seed from rural Ohio shocks the world, if they do, I wouldn’t count on it. Hopefully, however, this will make us appreciate the McNeese and High Points of the world even more. All else being equal, go Huskies.
