It’s official: President Joe Biden is running for re-election. On April 25, Mr. Biden formally announced his 2024 presidential campaign, pledging to “finish the job.”
Mr. Biden has faced a number of crises during his first term, including the trials of the January 6th rioters, the continuing Covid pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as challenges from China’s continued challenges to U.S. hegemony.
Some have voiced concerns that he has failed to fulfill his campaign promises and question his mental capacity to do the job of the president, given that he will be 86 by the end of a second term. According to FiveThirtyEight, only 42.4% of Americans believe he is doing a satisfactory job as of May 12, 2023.
Despite this, Mr. Biden seems to have a clear path to the Democratic nomination, unlike in 2020, when he fought off challenges from formidable opponents like Senator Bernie Sanders and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
As for the Republican nomination, there are two primary options: Former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Mr. Trump has still refused to concede the 2020 election, continuing to promote allegations of fraud. However, his numerous scandals, which include a criminal trial in New York, an investigation into election tampering in Georgia, and a federal inquiry into mishandling of classified documents, could sway Republicans to favor Mr. DeSantis instead.
Though Mr. DeSantis has not yet announced his campaign, it is just a matter of time. Mr. DeSantis has turned Florida into a red state and championed causes dear to the far-right – including signing a 6-week abortion ban and the “Don’t Say Gay” bill prohibiting education about gender and sexuality in elementary schools.
Despite that, many political analysts believe that Mr. DeSantis has missed his opportunity to make a challenge that could overpower Mr. Trump, noting that the governor is trailing in recent polling.
Even if he doesn’t win the primary in 2024, Mr. DeSantis still represents the future of the Republican party and could be a viable candidate in 2028.
The winner of the 2024 election will shape the United States’ future. It is safe to assume that Mr. Biden will be the Democratic candidate for president, facing either Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis. Mr. Trump’s devoted bloc of voters makes him the Republicans’ best chance of claiming the presidency in 2024 and it could cause the GOP trouble if he is not nominated.
